Caputo fractional-order modelling of HPV-induced cervical cancer progression under vaccination, screening and treatment controls

Cervical cancer often arises from persistent infection by high-risk HPV types and progresses via a gradual shift from infection to precancerous lesions and invasive cancer. Mathematical modeling is useful for understanding this multi-stage disease. This study introduces a Caputo fractional-order compartmental model for HPV infection, precancerous progression, and cervical cancer development under vaccination, screening, and treatment interventions.

The model categorizes individuals into susceptible, vaccinated, HPV-infected, precancerous, cervical cancer, and recovered groups. Fractional derivatives are employed to represent memory-dependent effects in disease progression. Positivity, boundedness, disease-free equilibrium, and basic reproduction number are derived using the next-generation matrix.

Stability is investigated via fractional-order stability criteria. An optimal control problem assesses the combined impact of vaccination, screening, and treatment in lowering infection and disease prevalence. Numerical simulations demonstrate the influence of fractional order and intervention strategies on model dynamics. The findings offer a mathematical foundation for evaluating integrated control policies targeting HPV-induced cervical cancer progression.

This work honors the author's mother, who lost her battle against cancer, inspiring his dedication to mathematical modeling of cancer-related phenomena. No external funding was obtained for this research.