Why Siberia’s warming landscape could shatter Trump’s Arctic ambitions

As the United States, Russia and China vie to capitalize on the melting Arctic, their ambitions face an unexpected hurdle: the thawing of permafrost in Russia's Siberia. President Trump has championed expanding America's presence in the Arctic, investing in icebreakers, unlocking natural resources in Alaska and pursuing the acquisition of Greenland.

However, the rapid warming in the Arctic, occurring nearly four times faster than the global average, could thwart these plans. A Chinese-led study published in Science reveals that the cost of collapsing ground from permafrost thaw in Siberia could eclipse the region's economic potential by 2050. This thaw, driven by Arctic amplification, could release vast amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, exacerbating global warming.

Around 46 percent of the northern hemisphere's permafrost lies in Siberia, and by mid-century, higher methane emissions could negate 20 percent of the global methane reduction needed to meet climate targets. Methane is 28 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Thawing permafrost is already causing land subsidence, landslides, soil loss, coastal erosion, and shifting from terrestrial to aquatic landscapes.

Infrastructure such as buildings, roads, railways, airports, pipelines, oilfields and mines are already suffering from the effects of thaw. By the middle of the century, approximately 69 percent of fundamental circumpolar infrastructure could be at risk of damage. Russia, with the largest permafrost area and extensive permafrost-based infrastructure, is particularly vulnerable, especially its mining and oil and gas operations.

Alaska, with permafrost covering about 80 percent of its land, faces significant losses as well. While some argue that a de-iced Arctic could reduce heating costs and expand agricultural land, the permafrost threat poses a major challenge to both the environment and economy.