Damascus and Kabul: how great powers are defeated

The stories of Damascus and Kabul share a common theme of great powers suffering defeat. In Afghanistan, the United States' invasion in 2001 toppled the Taliban and pursued al-Qaeda. However, after two decades, US forces withdrew in 2021, leading to the Taliban's return to power and the collapse of the American-backed government. This became a symbol of American defeat.

Historically, Afghanistan has been the "graveyard of empires." The British campaigns in the 18th and 19th centuries, followed by the Soviet invasion in 1979, both resulted in military setbacks that contributed to the decline of their respective powers. The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 helped weaken the Soviet Union.

Similarly, in Syria, Russia's support for the Assad regime came to an end after the regime's fall in 2022. Russian forces had been intervening in Syria since 2015 to protect Assad. However, after nine years of support, Russia faced the reality of Assad's defeat and the humiliation that came with it. Russian President Vladimir Putin sought a way to maintain Russia's influence in Syria without the heavy-handed approach that had led to the downfall of the Assad regime.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, a Syrian opposition leader, devised a political plan to neutralize Russia and forge a new relationship between Syria and Russia. He understood that Russia, being a great power with a nuclear arsenal and a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, posed a significant threat to any power seeking to neutralize it. Sharaa aimed to gradually weaken Russia's influence in Syria rather than expelling it completely.

Sharaa's approach was nuanced, distinguishing between defeating Assad and Putin, and between victory and humiliation. He sought to open channels of communication with a senior Russian official, effectively a line to Putin himself. Instead of a hostile takeover, Sharaa proposed a more cooperative relationship, where Russian bombing of Syrian cities would cease, Moscow would refrain from using its political and media weight against the new Syrian government, and Russian bases would be facilitated for withdrawal if Moscow wished to do so.

In return, Russian bases would not be targeted, and the fall of the Assad regime would not be turned into a campaign to humiliate Russia. Sharaa entered Damascus without severing the Russian thread that had accompanied his advance, and after becoming president of Syria, he visited Putin twice. Talks continued until August 2026, eventually producing a new understanding to reconfigure Russia's military presence in Syria.

While the Taliban and Russia both experienced defeat in their respective conflicts, the Syrian approach of seeking a cooperative relationship rather than a hostile takeover highlights a different path for great powers facing defeat. Damascus became a symbol of a major defeat for a major power, while Kabul served as a symbol of American defeat. The Syrian experience offers a cautionary tale for other great powers seeking to maintain their influence in the face of defeat.