Map Shows States Facing Higher Wildfire Risk During El Niño

A strengthening El Niño could leave parts of the northern United States more susceptible to wildfires, even as the climate phenomenon lowers the threat across much of the South and Southwest. The latest outlook from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) says El Niño has developed and is strengthening, with central Pacific sea surface temperature approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above average, the threshold for a strong El Niño, while the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there is a greater than 90 percent chance it will become a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27.

Research published this year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences shows that an autumn El Niño could increase wildfire risk in some regions into next spring and summer, while reducing it in others—potentially creating a great dividing line between increased fire danger in parts of the northern U.S. and reduced danger further south.

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