OpenAI's 2026 Revenue Estimate Just Got Cut by $20 Billion. Anthropic's Quarterly Revenue Just Climbed to $16.8 Billion.

The AI IPO race is nearing its conclusion, with two major players emerging and one fading. Anthropic, an AI lab, reported a significant surge in revenue during its most recent quarterly meeting with investors. The company generated $16.8 billion in revenue for the third quarter, a 45% increase from the $11.6 billion earned in the second quarter.

Although Anthropic did not disclose its quarterly revenue from the previous year, its total revenue in 2025 was reported at $4.6 billion, indicating a potential 1,000% year-over-year growth in its top line. Anthropic also revealed that it was profitable on an adjusted basis in the third quarter.

Contrastingly, OpenAI, another prominent AI lab, appears to be heading in a different direction. The company has postponed its IPO to 2027 and is now targeting a $30 billion fundraising round with a projected valuation between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion. Unlike Anthropic, OpenAI has yet to achieve profitability, and it recently disclosed that it expected to generate $50 billion in revenue for the year, which is lower than previous projections of $70 billion.

These projections were based on comparisons to Anthropic's performance. OpenAI's reported operating losses in 2025 amounted to $20.9 billion on $13.1 billion in revenue, with a reported loss of $12.3 billion in the second quarter.

The success of the entire AI sector rests on the long-term profitability of either Anthropic or OpenAI. It is believed that only one of these companies can become profitable over the long term to sustain the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out. Currently, it seems more likely that Anthropic will achieve this milestone, as it has already committed to at least $518 billion in infrastructure and related investments over the next decade.

Investors should remember that the competitive landscape in the AI sector can change rapidly as new models emerge, and OpenAI has managed to regain ground after Anthropic led the industry earlier this year with products like Claude Code.

Investors in AI should anticipate Anthropic's upcoming IPO as a crucial test for the entire AI trade. If demand is strong and Anthropic's stock price rises after its debut, it is expected that the broader AI sector will follow, leading to a potential surge in AI stocks. However, a weak market response could result in a sharp sell-off in the sector, potentially delaying OpenAI's IPO until more favorable market conditions arise.

Nonetheless, it is clear that Anthropic's debut will be instrumental in shaping the future of AI stocks.