The Gulf’s new regional architecture will require a rebuilding of trust

The Gulf region is undergoing a transformation, as highlighted during the opening day of the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi. Diplomats are discussing how the countries will navigate this complexity, with the annual strategic dialogue taking place amidst a tumultuous geopolitical landscape. The ongoing Iran war, now in its seventh month, has exposed the limitations of relying solely on American security alliances and regional cooperation to ensure the Gulf's security and prosperity.

Iran's attacks on all six Gulf countries have resulted in loss of life, damage to critical infrastructure, and disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global trade as well. Tehran's recent establishment of a restricted zone around the waterway, with sanctions threatened against vessels that enter without Iranian coordination, demonstrates the extent of the vulnerability.

The Gulf's search for alternatives has become an urgent strategic priority. The UAE, led by Dr Anwar Gargash, has pursued strategic autonomy, retaining the capacity to keep its economy growing, people safe, and decisions its own. While recognizing the importance of partnerships with fellow Gulf states, it acknowledges that partnerships alone cannot replace strategic autonomy.

Majed Al Ansari, an adviser to Qatar's prime minister, emphasized that the biggest threat now is the normalization of the current state of "no war, no peace." He stressed the importance of reinstating deterrence and suggested that more open borders could deepen cooperation on supply chains, strengthening the region's ability to withstand disruptions.

Dr Gargash reiterated that Iran remains a neighbor, but Iran's recent missile and drone attacks have destroyed decades of built bridges. Restoring a functional relationship will be challenging, but it is essential to rebuild trust.