The Gulf’s new regional architecture will require a rebuilding of trust

The Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi opened with a stark assessment of the evolving Gulf region. Diplomats grappled with the complexities that lie ahead as the countries confront a shifting geopolitical landscape. The forum, organized jointly by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, took place amidst the ongoing Iran war in its seventh month.

This conflict has exposed the limitations of the previous reliance on American security alliances and regional cooperation as a means to ensure the Gulf's security and prosperity. The attacks launched by Iran have resulted in casualties, damaged critical infrastructure, and disrupted trade through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The region's vulnerability, as demonstrated by Iran's establishment of a restricted zone around the waterway, emphasizes the urgent need for alternatives.

Dr Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, highlighted the Gulf's transformation during the forum. The region is now more complex and uncertain, with consequences yet to be fully understood. UAE's response to this evolving situation has been to pursue strategic autonomy, which Gargash explained involves retaining the capacity to maintain a growing economy, safe population, and independent decision-making.

This approach does not necessarily reject partnerships with fellow Gulf states, but it does recognize that partnerships cannot replace strategic autonomy.

Qatari adviser Majed Al Ansari emphasized the current threat of "normalization" of the "no war, no peace" state. He emphasized the importance of reinstating deterrence and suggested more open borders as a practical starting point to deepen cooperation on supply chains. This would enhance the region's resilience against potential disruptions.

The forum concluded that the Gulf's new regional architecture is fluid and that continuous dialogue and the rebuilding of trust are essential as Iran remains a crucial neighbor. Dr Gargash acknowledged the difficulty in rebuilding trust, calling it "a mountain" to climb.