OPEC+ set to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sunday, sources say

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October, according to two sources familiar with the discussions. The organization needs to finalize new quotas before determining its next output steps. The ongoing Iran war is disrupting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+'s influence on prices and market share.

In August, OPEC+ agreed to a production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut initiated in 2023. Despite the production increases, the group, comprising OPEC and its allies including Russia, continues to produce far below its targets due to the war. OPEC+ still maintains a layer of production cuts covering most members until the end of 2026.

Before deciding to remove the cuts and return production to the market, the group must review members' oil production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines, serving as the basis for quotas. This review will likely occur later in 2026, leading to the possibility of OPEC+ pausing its output increases for the fourth quarter.