OPEC+ set to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sunday, sources say

OPEC+ is poised to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October during a meeting on Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions, as the group needs to finalize new quotas before deciding on the next steps in adjusting production. The meeting takes place amidst ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict, which continue to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+'s ability to exert control over prices and market share.

In contrast to past instances, the group's decisions on supply have had a minimal impact on the market. In August, OPEC+ agreed to a production increase for September, marking a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut initially agreed upon in 2023. Despite these efforts to increase production, the group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still falls short of its targets due to the ongoing war.

OPEC+ still maintains additional layers of production cuts in place, affecting most members of the 21-country group until the end of 2026. Prior to determining how to phase out the cuts and restore production to the market, OPEC+ must assess members' oil production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines, serving as the foundation for quotas.

This evaluation is expected to take place later in 2026, leading OPEC+ to likely pause its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources previously informed Reuters.