Opec+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October

OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy unchanged for October during a Sunday (Sep 6) meeting, according to a statement released by the group. The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, took place amid ongoing disruptions to oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war.

This conflict has limited OPEC+'s ability to influence prices and market share. In August, OPEC+ agreed to a production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut initially implemented in 2023. Despite this increase, the group, comprising OPEC and its allies like Russia, is still producing far below its targets due to the war.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, noted that OPEC+ currently has limited control over the physical oil market, as they can adjust production targets on paper but cannot ensure those barrels are actually produced and reach the market. The group still maintains production cuts covering most of its 21-member countries until the end of 2026, and will need to review members' oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines before deciding on future quotas.

This debate is expected to occur later in 2026, potentially leading to a pause in output increases for the fourth quarter.