Opec+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October

Opec+ maintained its oil output strategy for October after a Sunday meeting, according to a statement from the producer group. The group comprises seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The meeting occurs amid the ongoing Iran war, which continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing Opec+'s control over prices and market share.

In August, Opec+ approved a production increase for September, concluding a phased rollback of a 1.65mn-barrel-per-day supply cut initially agreed in 2023. Despite these boosts, the group's production remains significantly below its targets due to the war. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy notes that Opec+'s influence on the physical oil market is currently limited; they can adjust production targets on paper but cannot ensure those barrels will be produced or reach the market.

Opec+'s focus is now shifting from monthly production adjustments to the crucial debate over 2027. The group still maintains production cuts affecting most members until the end of 2026, requiring a review of oil production capacity to establish 2027 output baselines and set quotas. This debate is expected to occur later in 2026, likely leading to a pause in output increases for the fourth quarter.

The statement made on Sunday does not mention policy beyond October. The seven Opec+ members involved in recent monthly output decisions, along with the United Arab Emirates, which left Opec in May, will convene their next meeting on October 4.