OPEC+ set to keep oil output policy unchanged on Sept 6, sources say

OPEC+ is poised to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October during a meeting scheduled for September 6, according to two individuals familiar with the deliberations, as reported by Reuters. The producer organization must first reach a consensus on new quotas before determining its subsequent output strategies. This comes amid ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict, which continue to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, thereby limiting OPEC+'s ability to exert control over global prices and market shares.

In contrast to previous instances, the group's supply decisions have demonstrated minimal influence on the market. In August, OPEC+ announced its production increase for September, concluding a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day output reduction initially agreed upon in 2023. Despite these increases, the collective output of OPEC+ members remains significantly below pre-agreed targets due to the ongoing war.

The organization still maintains additional production cuts in place, covering the majority of its 21-member countries until the end of 2026. Prior to deciding how to gradually unwind these restrictions and restore output to the market, OPEC+ must first assess members' oil production capabilities to establish baseline production levels for 2027, which will serve as the foundation for future quotas.

This evaluation process is anticipated to occur later in 2026, leading to the likelihood of OPEC+ pausing its output increases for the fourth quarter, sources previously informed Reuters.