Irankrieg: 95 statt 200 Dollar: Warum der große Öl-Schock bisher ausbleibt
Ölpreise von bis zu 200 Dollar pro Barrel prophezeiten Experten wegen des Irankriegs. IEA und EU warnten vor Engpässen. Das Handelsblatt erklärt, warum diese Prognosen nicht eingetreten sind.
In February, the United States and Israel attacked Iran and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, prompting fears of a severe oil crisis. Oil prices surged from $72 to over $119 within days. Experts warned of a crisis more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022. The International Energy Agency (IEA) chief, Fatih Birol, called the crisis "more serious than any other in history."
Energetic historian Daniel Yergin referred to it as the "greatest energy crisis, disruption, and interruption in history." Economists predicted a deep recession. Jeff Currie, former head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, stated, "We believe the world is more vulnerable to an oil shock today than in 1973, not less." If the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for a month, Brent oil could rise to $150, according to JP Morgan's Bruce Kasman.
BlackRock's Larry Fink warned that a sustained price level of $150 would lead to a global recession. Even after the initial price shock, gloomy forecasts persisted throughout spring. Despite the ongoing conflict, Brent oil prices have unexpectedly stayed around $95, roughly six percent higher than before the crisis.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
