How climate change and food insecurity could fuel future conflicts

Climate change and food insecurity could potentially spark future conflicts, according to new research. Severe droughts and extreme weather are already damaging harvests in many regions, and a developing El Niño event could exacerbate food shortages in 2024. Wars and geopolitical tensions are further disrupting supply chains, driving up costs for farmers worldwide.

The Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) identifies regions where climate change is most severely impacting agricultural productivity. Tropical regions are experiencing the heaviest losses, with hundreds of millions of people living in areas where harvests are smaller than 30 years ago. Northern Africa is another region of particular concern, with agricultural losses already being felt.

The research suggests that while climate change and other shocks can make regions poorer, they also create new opportunities and competition for land and resources. In some cases, this can lead to increased tensions and the risk of conflict. For example, Sudan is projected to produce more food due to climate change, but regional disparities could exacerbate competition and instability.

Even in stable, wealthy regions, the climate crisis is creating future problems. Changes in grape-growing options in Europe, for instance, are already impacting local farmers. Large agricultural companies are buying up land in mountainous regions, anticipating future grape harvests. Similarly, big agricultural companies are purchasing land worldwide, leading to displacement of locals and rising land prices.

The research also highlights the vulnerability of non-democratic countries to climate-related conflicts. Democracies, with their established institutions and negotiation processes, are less prone to conflict in such situations. However, in non-democracies, the lack of these mechanisms can lead to violence when resources become scarce.

South Asia and the Sahel are identified as regions to watch most closely, due to their high climate vulnerability and rapid population growth. South Asia, with a population of around 2 billion, is highly dependent on imports, particularly from Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Malaysia. Local agriculture is threatened by heat waves, floods, declining land productivity, and saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels.

The looming instability, according to experts, applies to areas where climate change hasn't yet impacted agricultural productivity. If land is projected to become more productive, there may be increased competition and potential for conflict. Negotiations may break down as winners and losers emerge, leading to violence.