How climate change and food insecurity could fuel future conflicts
Climate change, conflict, and trade tensions are putting pressure on the global food system. New research suggests the biggest risk is not food shortages, but whether societies can peacefully adapt to change.
The world's food system is facing increasing stress, with new research pointing to potential conflict areas. Severe droughts and extreme weather are damaging harvests, while geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains. The war in Ukraine and Iran's impact on the Strait of Hormuz have driven up costs for farmers. Experts warn that rising food insecurity could fuel instability, leading to social unrest and armed conflict, especially in fragile countries.
The Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) identifies regions where food production is already being reduced, highlighting the need for attention in northern Africa. The research suggests that agricultural gains can also increase the risk of violence, as land becomes more valuable and competition for resources intensifies.
Even in stable regions, the climate crisis poses future challenges, such as the changing grape-growing options in Europe. Non-democratic governments are more likely to experience conflict due to a lack of institutions that encourage negotiation and compromise. The regions of South Asia and the Sahel are of particular concern due to their high vulnerability to climate change and rapid population growth.
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