UN warns of ‘supersized’ El Nino as countries prepare for impact

In a "danger zone of extreme weather," the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon are being felt worldwide, according to the United Nations' head, António Guterres. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that this El Niño could be the strongest in over 70 years and may persist until at least February 2027. El Niño alters global weather patterns, causing some regions to experience drought while others face stronger typhoons and flooding.

Temperatures in some areas are expected to increase due to a combination of El Niño and ongoing human-induced climate change. Guterres emphasized that the planet is entering uncharted waters with warming temperatures.

Governments and scientists are taking measures to mitigate the risks of deaths, displacement, and environmental damage. Early warning systems have been bolstered, and pre-emptive medical support is being deployed. However, the intensity of this El Niño event has raised serious concerns, particularly for vulnerable groups.

The WMO has mobilized a major effort to disseminate forecasts of potential extreme weather events caused by El Niño to as many communities as possible. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, warned that El Niño could deal a massive blow to communities and economies around the world. The Pacific Ocean region has seen sea temperatures rise sharply in recent months, with surface temperatures exceeding 2C above average, indicating a strengthening El Niño.

Forecasts suggest that sea surface temperatures could surpass 4C above average, making it the strongest El Niño since at least 1950, if not stronger.

Australia is particularly concerned about the impact of El Niño on its marine life, given its rich marine ecosystems. While the Great Barrier Reef may avoid the worst of the conditions, southern Australia is expected to suffer severely, with previous marine heatwaves causing starving penguins, fish kills, algae outbreaks, and jellyfish invasions.

Australia has introduced early warning systems for marine crises, but this event is unprecedented, and Dr. Alistair Hobday, chief researcher at Australia's science agency, expressed his worries.

Drier-than-usual conditions are anticipated across vast areas of South East Asia, Central America, and northern South America, heightening the risk of droughts and wildfires. The Panama Canal's shipping traffic will be reduced by over 10% due to reduced rainfall, a significant blow to the canal's revenue of approximately $3bn annually, as well as a crucial global trading route.

Indonesia is grappling with wildfires that have burned over 107,000 hectares of land this dry season, with thick smoke posing health risks to residents. Authorities are using cloud-seeding aircraft to induce rainfall, and the government has promised resources to contain the fires. Typhoons are expected to be more intense in China, with seven expected to make landfall this year alone, resulting in dozens of deaths in July and August.

Eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern US are also bracing for stronger typhoons and an increased risk of flooding.