El Niño could become strongest on record, WMO warns of extreme weather into 2027

The United Nations' climate agency has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon could be the strongest in four decades, with the potential to become the most intense ever recorded. El Nino, a naturally occurring event, warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing worldwide shifts in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns.

Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, WMO chief Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trajectory continues, the El Nino event may surpass anything witnessed since monitoring began four decades ago, effectively "off the charts." The agency predicts that the powerful El Nino event will peak towards the end of this year but may still impact the climate well into 2027.

According to the WMO, this extraordinary El Nino event poses a significant threat to global weather and climate patterns. It could trigger extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, leading to severe consequences for communities and economies worldwide. UN chief Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgent need for climate action, highlighting that the planet is entering uncharted waters with rising sea surface temperatures, climbing global temperatures, and an increased danger zone for extreme weather.

El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months, oscillating between El Nino, La Nina, and neutral conditions. The WMO classifies El Nino events based on intensity levels: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, with the latter reaching the highest level out of four. The agency is currently reporting an exceptionally high likelihood – nearly 100 percent – that El Nino will continue through February.

In September-November, forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas, accompanied by rainfall patterns demonstrating a pronounced response to the strong Pacific El Nino. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have already strengthened from an average 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal between May and July.

Between late July and mid-August, weekly values ranged from approximately 2.2 degrees Celsius to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, signifying ongoing El Nino intensification. Some areas even experienced subsurface ocean temperatures exceeding 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.