Iran, Qatar hold Hormuz talks amid int’l hopes dialogue with US will resume

American strategist Thomas O Donnell believes that Iran's strategic trump card, the Strait of Hormuz, is losing its value as a defense against regime change. As many of Iran's regional proxies have been degraded and its nuclear ambitions delayed, Tehran's remaining options—rockets, drones, and the threat of disrupting the strait—are losing effectiveness.

O Donnell predicts that with 14 to 15 million barrels of oil previously passing through Hormuz daily, nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can manage without much of this supply. Moreover, the International Energy Agency and the US have committed significant oil reserves to protect against any disruptions.

While the US might feel the economic impact of a closed strait, O Donnell argues that this is more of a short-term geostrategic fluctuation rather than a fundamental change. New pipelines in the UAE and Iraq, along with other alternatives, will further reduce the significance of Hormuz as a transit point. Iran's own defense capabilities against neighboring states and alternative oil routes are also diminishing.

As the strait becomes less indispensable for global energy markets, and Tehran's ability to control it wanes, vessels will likely travel through the strait with minimal hindrance, according to O Donnell. This scenario could lead to a deal between Iran and the US, as the regime's hardliners might be compelled to compromise due to an escalating financial crisis.