Drone strikes on Zawiya expose weak link in Libya’s energy security

A series of drone strikes on the Zawiya refinery complex in Libya has raised concerns about the country's energy security. The state-owned National Oil Corporation warned that continued attacks could force them to declare force majeure and suspend operations, leading to increased reliance on imported fuel and potential disruptions to crude flows.

Zawiya is crucial for Libya's upstream production and crude evacuation infrastructure, as well as domestic fuel supply. The complex is connected to the Sharara oilfield, which accounts for about a quarter of Libya's production. Recent attacks caused fires at fuel storage tanks and briefly disrupted operations, but the refinery itself remained undamaged.

Despite the immediate crisis easing, security concerns persist, with a drone attack on the South Zawiya power substation causing a major electricity outage and US company GE suspending work at a nearby power plant due to security fears. The refinery produces petrol, diesel, jet fuel, LPG, fuel oil, and naphtha for domestic consumption, with additional asphalt and lubricants production.

Libya's dependence on imports for refined products could increase if the refinery remains shut, impacting the economy heavily reliant on hydrocarbons revenue. The latest drone attacks mark a more troubling evolution in security risks facing Libya's oil industry, as they involve direct targeting of strategically important infrastructure, potentially affecting upstream operations and maintenance.