Drone strikes on Zawiya expose weak link in Libya’s energy security

Repeated drone strikes on Libya's Zawiya refinery complex have raised concerns about the country's energy security. The state-owned National Oil Corporation warned that continued attacks could force the refinery to declare force majeure and suspend operations, increasing Libya's dependence on imported fuel and potentially disrupting crude flows.

The complex is also crucial for upstream operations, as it is connected to the Sharara oilfield. The attacks have caused fires in fuel storage tanks, with one tank collapsing after a fire. No casualties were reported, and emergency teams brought the fires under control. Despite the immediate crisis being eased, the threat to the complex remains, with security concerns spreading to the South Zawiya power substation and a nearby power plant.

Libya's fuel supply has been stable so far, but a prolonged shutdown could lead to higher import requirements for petrol and diesel, increasing the country's foreign-exchange needs. Zawiya is Libya's largest operating refinery, with a refining capacity of 120,000 barrels per day. The complex's vulnerability to drone attacks highlights the evolving security risks facing Libya's oil industry.