As their warships encircle Japan, what signals are China and Russia sending?

China and Russia have intensified their military cooperation, with a joint patrol around Japan signaling a show of force against Tokyo and the United States, according to analysts. Three Chinese naval vessels and a Russian corvette embarked on a 17-day joint patrol, starting on July 13 and passing through various waters, including the western Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Sea of Japan.

The joint patrol completed a circumnavigation of Japan by Sunday and Monday when three Chinese naval vessels moved southwest through the Korea Strait. The Japanese Ministry of Defence highlighted that this marked the first time Chinese and Russian ships had transited the Vries Strait in the Kuril Islands together. The Chinese and Russian military activities in the region have been expanding in both duration and scope, as well as in conjunction with broader tensions in the first island chain.

These actions are seen as a response to potential threats posed by Japan, including Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about the possibility of military action in the event of an attack on Taiwan. Japan's defense ministry expressed concern over these developments, stating that joint Chinese and Russian patrols in the region were a matter of serious concern for Japan's national security.

Japan has responded by deploying Maritime Self-Defence Force vessels and patrol aircraft to monitor the Chinese ships in the region. The joint patrol is viewed as a demonstration of China's military capabilities and its willingness to engage in military operations in the Indo-Pacific despite the ongoing war in Ukraine. Japan has noted that these developments signal China's intent to pressure Prime Minister Takaichi and reinforce its position ahead of any possible contingency involving Taiwan.

The increased military activities by China and Russia come amid a deteriorating security environment across the first island chain, characterized by frequent People's Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan, maritime and air incursions near Japan, and growing utilization of paramilitary vessels. These developments are viewed as reinforcing Japan's perception of an increasingly complex and contested regional security landscape, leading to a strengthening of Japan's determination to deepen security cooperation with like-minded partners.