Russia and Azerbaijan: From Balancing to Confrontation
Ruslan Suleymanov on how the war in Ukraine has reshaped relations between Moscow and Baku
In the years following Azerbaijan's independence, the nation maintained a delicate balance between its relationships with Russia and Turkey. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, significantly weakened Moscow's standing in the South Caucasus, paving the way for Azerbaijan to decisively resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in its favor. Following this victory and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, Baku initially sought to preserve close ties with Moscow.
In December 2024, the situation took a sharp turn following an Azerbaijani passenger plane shot down by Russian air defenses near Grozny. This incident resulted in a dramatic cooling of bilateral relations, escalating into a full-blown confrontation between the two countries. Despite still sharing mutual interests, unresolved disputes and the erosion of Kremlin authority have accelerated a process of "separation."
Azerbaijan now operates with increased independence, no longer feeling obligated to maintain the previous equilibrium.
On February 22, 2022, two days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The talks led to the signing of a Declaration on Allied Interaction, aiming to deepen cooperation between the two nations. Though initially cautious, Baku's stance remained consistent with its support for Ukraine's territorial integrity and opposition to Russia's actions in the region.
However, Azerbaijan's relationship with Armenia strained over the issue of Karabakh. Following the 2020 trilateral statement that ended the 44-day war, Russia appeared to be the main benefactor, reaffirming its role as the arbiter of the South Caucasus conflict. Yet, the ongoing war in Ukraine forced Moscow to reassess its regional position, allowing Azerbaijan to settle the Karabakh issue independently.
In April 2023, Baku established its own checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. The Kremlin's hostility to Armenia's 2023 ratification of the Rome Statute, which would have obliged Yerevan to implement International Criminal Court decisions and potentially arrest Putin, further exacerbated tensions.
By June 2024, Azerbaijan had secured the departure of the last Russian peacekeepers, marking a significant shift in the South Caucasus balance that no longer posed the same threat to Moscow as it once had.
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