Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict—according to new research by the Global Carbon Project. The 2026 edition (the 21st annual report) is published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
The Global Carbon Project's 2026 research reports a projected 0.4% decline in global fossil CO₂ emissions, attributed to the growth of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict. The report, published in Earth System Science Data, projects 38.2 billion metric tons of fossil CO₂ emissions for 2026, a slight decrease from 42.8 billion metric tons in 2025.
While clean energy growth is encouraging, it is not yet sufficient to drive a durable decline in global fossil CO₂ emissions. Emissions from land-use change are expected to rise slightly this year, bringing total CO₂ emissions to 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026. The research indicates that while renewables and electric vehicles are playing a key role in offsetting energy demand growth, more acceleration is needed to ensure a sustained decline in global emissions.
Written by urgent.news from Phys.org's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
This story
This is one outlet's version. Read the fullest account.
- Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use carbonbrief.org
- Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch livescience.com
- Global carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock newscientist.com
- Renewables and Iran war help drive fall in global fossil fuel emissions abc.net.au
