Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch

The world's carbon emissions from oil, gas and coal could decrease by 0.4% this year, according to a new report. This decrease is partly due to the growth of solar and wind power capacity and price increases stemming from the Iran conflict. However, the world is still likely to miss key climate goals as emissions are projected to increase in India, despite decreases in other major emitters like China, the U.S. and the European Union.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget report predicts 38.2 billion metric tons (42.1 billion U.S. tons) of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year. While the projected decline is small, climate scientist Joeri Rogelj notes that it represents a positive sign of decarbonisation efforts making a difference. However, the war with Iran has resulted in restricted fuel availability and high prices, leading to a reduction in demand.

Energy demand is increasing, but clean technologies like solar, wind power and electric vehicles are helping to offset some of the increase.