Many Regions Have Warmed Beyond 1.5°C and Some Beyond 2°C, New Study Finds
A new study, published in Nature Climate Change, indicates that at the regional level, many places on Earth have already surpassed 1.5°C (2.7°F), and suggests that other regions are close to warming as much as 2°C (3.6°F) due to human-caused climate change.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, reveals that many regions around the world have already experienced warming beyond the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold set by the Paris Agreement, and some have even surpassed the 2°C (3.6°F) mark. This follows the 2016 signing of the Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels.
The research team, led by climate scientists Francis Zwiers and Xuebin Zhang from the University of Victoria, analyzed regional climate observations, global climate observations, and simulations of past climate change to estimate warming in regions with sparse or nonexistent historical climate data. Their findings show that today's global climate is statistically indistinguishable from a world that has warmed 1.5°C (2.7°F) since preindustrial times, and that the current climate has already exceeded this limit in up to 94% of regions.
Some areas, such as Canada, large parts of Europe, and the Russian Arctic, have experienced even greater warming, with temperatures increasing by more than 2°C (3.6°F) or 2.5°C (4.5°F) in some high-latitude regions. The study also projects that under a high-emissions scenario, global average temperatures will reach the 1.5°C (2.7°F) limit in 2029 and the 2°C (3.6°F) limit in 2042.
While it remains possible to limit warming to no more than 2°C (3.6°F), significant emissions reductions will be necessary to achieve this goal.
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