Prediction Markets Face Google Ads Limits in Five States

Prediction-market operators in Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio are facing advertising limitations due to ongoing disputes over sports-related event contracts in state and federal courts. Kalshi and other operators are impacted by this restriction, which creates a barrier even as legal questions remain unresolved.

Google has imposed these conditions on prediction markets, separate from the court cases determining whether states can ban them from offering contracts. Google's policy requires operators to hold local financial, commodities, or gaming licenses, comply with local laws, and receive Google's certification and approval to advertise in an eligible location.

The company also mandates that advertisers check the rules in each targeted location. These conditions overlap with the state-by-state exclusions in Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio. State lawsuits continue as operators fight to operate within their jurisdictions. The legal dispute centers around whether sports contracts fall under federal commodities regulation or state gambling rules.

Some operators, like Underdog, have challenged state enforcement, arguing that the CFTC regulates their event contracts and exempts them from state gambling laws. Despite the ongoing legal battle, sports-event contracts remain the most popular category among prediction-market users, with 70% of respondents trading sports contracts in the past year, compared to 36% for economic or financial outcomes and 33% for political outcomes.

Awareness of prediction markets among the general public is low, with only 42% having heard of them but not used them, and 44% never having heard of prediction markets.