Natural hazards don’t obey electoral cycles. The next government faces crucial choices
New Zealand is a hazard-prone country and exposure to risk is rising. The choices the next government makes may be among the most consequential of the next decade.
Every election cycle, the same concerns arise: the economy, health, housing, and the cost of government. However, an issue transcends these matters and confronts whichever party assumes power. Despite not being a central campaign topic, natural hazards impact the economy, health, well-being, where we choose to build, insurance premiums, and the financial burden passed on to future generations and taxpayers.
New Zealand's location renders it particularly susceptible to floods, tsunamis, coastal erosion, severe storms, earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, and droughts. Climate change and continuous development will exacerbate exposure and risk, necessitating adaptation strategies. The expenses are significant. For instance, the insurance claims stemming from the 2023 Auckland anniversary weekend floods surpassed NZ$2 billion.
Yet, these figures only represent a portion of the costs, with added consequences including disruptions, infrastructure damage, and adverse health effects. Each political party could adopt varying policies, but all function within the same hazard environment. Their decisions will yield observable outcomes: the frequency of hazards turning into disasters, the severity of their impacts, the speed of adaptation or recovery, and the extent of affected populations.
As researchers who have dedicated their careers to natural hazards, we identify three crucial points that should guide the next government's priorities. More than an election issue The biggest challenge a generation ago was comprehending New Zealand's natural hazards. Now, there is investment in hazard science and mapping, risk modeling, and post-disaster inquiries.
We possess more knowledge about the communities and infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, we have sophisticated tools for understanding climate impacts, and artificial intelligence advancements will enhance modeling and forecasting. However, this merely marks the beginning. We must comprehend how science converts into risks and consequences.
We will need to act to safeguard what we value. This necessitates more than just data; it requires stronger connections between science, policy, and practice, increased investment in capabilities, and a willingness to make long-term decisions despite uncertainty. Most importantly, natural hazard risk and resilience must be viewed as a perpetual national concern, independent of electoral cycles.
New Zealand's geography indeed makes it a risky place to live and develop, necessitating continuous investment. Yet, science only yields value when it translates into action: how we build and utilize land, invest in infrastructure, adapt and mitigate risk, or enhance resilience. Exposure and risk are escalating Despite enhanced information, New Zealand persists in placing individuals, assets, and infrastructure in areas vulnerable to hazards.
Every decision concerning housing, transportation, water infrastructure, or urban expansion influences future risk. Some decisions mitigate risk; others embed and escalate it. This encapsulates a fundamental tension in public policy: the short-term certainty of economic development versus the long-term uncertainty of costs. Consider, for example, the expedited development in South Auckland, which proposes thousands of residences on flood-prone land.
Despite reservations expressed by Auckland Council and others, it cleared the central government's expedited consenting process and now faces a High Court appeal (as of the writing date, the court's decision remains pending). Accelerating consenting and diminishing bureaucracy can facilitate development. However, it can also undermine safeguards that help ensure homes and infrastructure are constructed in locations with reduced exposure to natural hazards.
This concern extends beyond future ratepayers, Auckland Council, and the government have pledged approximately NZ$1.25 billion to acquire over 1,100 properties located in intolerable risk zones. Minimizing exposure is imperative to avert substantial future expenses. The solution is not to halt growth but rather to channel it in directions where individuals will not inherit avoidable risk.
While we already strive to achieve this, more robust and unambiguous policy frameworks are essential to protect communities and taxpayers. Acting on natural hazard information is not solely a government responsibility, nor is it exclusively about housing. Science must support decisions made by the private sector, infrastructure providers, or iwi and mana whenua.
Investment now or paying later Natural hazard resilience mandates sustained investment in science, infrastructure, policy, emergency management, and community preparedness. Infrastructure deteriorates, protection necessitates upkeep, expertise is lost through insufficient investment, and community preparedness wanes between emergencies.
Financial constraints may postpone investment until something breaks. Political parties frequently emphasize fiscal responsibility. Nevertheless, one of the clearest lessons from disasters is that failing to invest in resilience escalates costs that are already being shouldered by communities, ratepayers, and governments. A commonly cited estimate suggests that every dollar invested in resilience prevents eight dollars in losses.
To utilize the proverbial saying, the contrast is between the fence at the top of the cliff and the ambulance at the bottom. Nevertheless, resilience investment frequently encounters difficulties in securing sustained funding. As a recent report from the insurer IAG stated, "natural hazard risk is escalating faster than New Zealand's capacity to manage it."
Similarly, the Climate Change Commission has cautioned that adaptation progress is not keeping pace with risk. This is not merely about reducing harm; it is also prudent financial management. Investment in people is equally significant, encompassing emergency management professionals and the crucial role iwi and marae play during disasters.
The good news is that New Zealand boasts world-class science and robust science-practice networks, growing awareness of risk, and numerous instances where communities and sectors have responded effectively under pressure.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
