Oil prices fall as investors weigh supply outlook, Middle East tensions

Oil prices experienced a decline of over $1 in early trade on Thursday, as investors assessed potential risks to supply stemming from attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the US efforts to reduce petroleum shipping costs by easing sanctions on vessels. Brent crude futures dropped $1.39, or 1.31%, to $104.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures decreased $1.02, or 1.07%, to $94.07.

This drop reversed previous gains, with WTI reaching a three-week high after the Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s headquarters and Iran's deployment of new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in attacks around the waterway has intensified over the past 10 days, with Iran reportedly increasing strikes in response to the US blockade and stricter sanctions introduced last month.

The potential easing of sanctions on so-called shadow fleet vessels, which have transported oil and petroleum products from countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, has been discussed in the US, aiming to alleviate prices. However, increased output from Russia and the Middle East has helped stabilize prices. Russia's crude oil production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million bpd, though it remains 870,000 bpd below the year-ago level.

Middle East Gulf producers' crude oil exports also rose by 4.4 million bpd in September to around 75% of prewar levels. In the US, crude oil and distillate inventories fell, while gasoline stocks increased, according to market sources. Despite the significant inventory draw, oil prices did not react, indicating that investors remain cautious about pursuing prices higher at the current level.

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