Oil prices retreat as investors weigh supply outlook, Middle East tensions

Oil prices tumbled over 1% on Thursday as traders evaluated potential supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures slipped $1.64, or 1.6%, to $104.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 98 cents, or 1%, to $94.11, reversing recent gains. WTI had risen to a three-week high the previous session after Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Aramco’s headquarters and Iran announced new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to maintain high oil prices.

Two vessels, a container ship and a dry bulk carrier, sank near the strait in the past 24 hours due to projectiles, according to maritime officials. Attacks in the waterway have intensified over the past 10 days, with Iran ramping up strikes in retaliation for the US blockade of its ports and stricter sanctions imposed last month.

The US administration is exploring ways to ease sanctions on certain "shadow-fleet" vessels that have been transporting oil and petroleum products from nations like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, a source said on Wednesday. The discussions focus on permitting legal oil to flow through these vessels, a US official disclosed. Russia's crude oil output surged by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day (bpd), but year-over-year production was still 870,000 bpd lower, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Wednesday.

The IEA also noted a 4.4 million bpd increase in crude oil exports from Middle East Gulf producers in September, accounting for roughly 75% of prewar levels.

Despite the possibility of a near-term peace deal, oil continues to reach buyers through alternative routes and logistical arrangements, helping to prevent a more severe supply shock, according to Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova. However, these workarounds come at a higher cost and expose global flows to further disruption.

In the US, crude oil and distillate inventories declined, while gasoline stocks increased last week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, with crude stocks falling by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended October 9. This significant draw was greater than the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. Despite the sharp inventory reduction, oil prices barely responded, indicating that investors are cautious about chasing prices higher at present levels, as stated by Haitong Futures in a note on Thursday.

Official US Energy Information Administration figures will be released at 12 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT) on Thursday, delayed by a day due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday.