Oil prices barely changed as investors assess US-Iran peace talks and Gulf exports

Oil prices remained relatively unchanged in early Asian trading Thursday, as market participants deliberated the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the future of Middle Eastern crude exports. Brent crude futures edged up by 12 cents to $98.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped by 7 cents to $90.35 a barrel. Both benchmarks experienced a $1 increase on Wednesday, with Brent's monthly gain reaching 14%, the highest since July, and WTI's monthly gain reaching 5%.

Despite ongoing buying due to supply concerns stemming from stalled peace talks, selling pressure persisted as Middle Eastern oil exports showed signs of rebounding. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, pointed to Saudi Arabia's resumption of exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu as a significant driver. Tazawa noted that a new development, such as progress in the peace negotiations, would be required for WTI to break below the immediate support level of $88 a barrel.

Qatar expressed optimism on Tuesday that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington could lead to a breakthrough. However, U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed reports from Axios and CNN, which cited U.S. officials as saying he would grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps by Tehran on its nuclear program. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia restarted oil tanker loadings from Yanbu following the restart of operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports, including dark exports involving ships with their location transponders turned off, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, aligning with their 2025 average. The firm reported that Gulf exports doubled in September. Meanwhile, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to maintain their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, according to two people familiar with the matter.