Oil prices barely changed as investors assess US-Iran peace talks and Gulf exports

Oil prices remained relatively unchanged in early Asian trading on Thursday, as market participants analyzed the progress of US-Iran peace talks and the future of Middle East crude exports. Brent crude futures surged 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $90.35 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1%. However, both benchmarks had risen around $1 a barrel on Wednesday.

Despite continued buying due to supply concerns stemming from stalled peace negotiations, selling pressure surfaced as Middle Eastern oil exports exhibited signs of recovery. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, noted that Saudi Arabia's restart of exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu played a crucial role in this turnaround.

A new stimulus is expected for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to dip below the immediate support level of $88 a barrel, provided there is progress in the peace negotiations. Meanwhile, Qatar expressed optimism that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington could lead to a breakthrough. However, US President Donald Trump dismissed reports suggesting he might grant Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete" measures from Tehran on its nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu following the restart of its East-West Pipeline, with Goldman Sachs estimating Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports" with transponders turned off, to have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week. This aligns with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September. OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to maintain their production targets steady for November during their upcoming meeting.