Oil prices barely changed as investors assess US-Iran peace talks and Gulf exports

Crude oil prices maintained their position above US$90 per barrel on Thursday, as market participants assessed the potential recovery of Middle East oil shipments amid tense diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran. Saudi Arabia had successfully restored half the operating capacity of its vital East-West pipeline, enabling regional crude exports to approach pre-conflict levels.

Meanwhile, maritime transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz had reached 13.2 million barrels per day. However, traders remained cautious about the long-term viability of these supply flows, given the lack of a formal peace agreement to end the Iran conflict. Both nations involved in the dispute continued to assert their control over the strategic waterway.

Tehran had reportedly received a formal proposal from Washington regarding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group was expected to maintain its current November production quotas during its upcoming weekend policy meeting. The US dollar index edged lower at 101.497, marking a 0.01% decline from the previous day, while broader market sentiment was influenced by softer inflation data, which suggested the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates steady at its October meeting.

Despite a monthly increase in US Personal Consumption Expenditures, consumer spending remained robust, with higher energy prices not significantly impacting discretionary expenditure on goods and services. US GDP growth for the second quarter was revised upward to 2.2% from an initial estimate of 1.5%, while revised first-quarter figures also indicated stronger economic performance.

Corporate hiring in September indicated underlying economic stability, with non-farm payrolls expected to grow by 90,000 in the upcoming employment report. Financial models predicted the US dollar index to reach 100.952 by the end of the quarter and 99.244 over the next year. Meanwhile, the USD/Ringgit exchange rate rose to 4.0880 on Thursday, reflecting a 0.18% increase from the previous day's closing level of 4.0817.

Over a monthly period, the Ringgit had depreciated 1.07% against the greenback, despite a 2.79% gain compared to the same period last year. Analysts forecast the USD/MYR cross rate to be 4.07329 by the end of the quarter and 4.00117 in one year.