The overlooked Pakistan-Iran frontier in the shadow of West Asia conflict

Recent fighting in Saravan county, located on the Iran-Pakistan border near Sistan-Baluchestan, has drawn attention to security concerns in the region. After a series of intense Yemeni Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Makkah accord's potential activation has been a topic of discussion among stakeholders. However, the incident in Saravan has added to the debate over West Asia conflict's evolving geopolitics and Pakistan's role in it.

Pakistani security forces have been on high alert due to the possible repercussions of the ongoing Iranian conflict, which has led to the closure of borders with Afghanistan and Iran. The porous nature of the border and the presence of multiple violent groups and criminal networks have raised security concerns.

The January 16, 2024, Iranian strike targeting Jaish al-Adl hideouts and Pakistan's retaliatory strikes in Iran have altered the dynamics of bilateral relations, leading to enhanced security cooperation between the two nations. Despite this, the Saravan attack has sparked questions about how the changing regional environment could impact frontier security, especially as Pakistan's border with Afghanistan remains closed.

Iran's IRGC may be preoccupied with US and Israeli strikes, the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf operations, making Sistan-Baluchestan a peripheral theatre competing for Iranian security resources. Although a convergence of US, Pakistani, and Saudi interests is expected to persist, Jaish al-Adl and several other groups have sought to broaden their activities against the Quds Force and IRGC, potentially hoping to find relevance in the broader conflict in West Asia.