Ruto fuel deal: How Mombasa, Tanga and Lamu are reshaping East Africa’s oil map

Kenya's government-to-government fuel arrangement is under scrutiny after Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni stated that his country reduced fuel premiums by changing the way it sourced petroleum products. This development highlights a broader trend in East Africa: the strengthening of infrastructure around Mombasa, Tanga, and Lamu, which could provide the region with more options for importing, transporting, and refining petroleum.

Despite this, Uganda still heavily relies on Kenya for fuel supplies, as it still depends on Mombasa and Kenya's pipeline network. Kenya, on the other hand, is pursuing a proposed large refinery at Lamu. This situation demonstrates a combination of cooperation and competition in the energy market. Museveni revealed that Uganda was buying petroleum products from intermediaries in Kenya through a Kenyan senator's alert.

After changing its procurement arrangements, Uganda saw a significant reduction in fuel prices: diesel from Ksh15,261 to Ksh10,734 per metric tonne, petrol from Ksh12,610 to KSh7,954, and aviation fuel from Ksh14,776 to Ksh10,249. However, the figures do not directly indicate savings or losses for Kenya. Uganda subsequently gave its national oil company a greater role in direct imports but still relies on Kenya for approximately 95 percent of its petroleum products.

Kenya's petroleum infrastructure remains crucial for the region, with the Kenya Pipeline Company estimating that 65 percent of its transit-market imports were received through Mombasa. The region's strategic energy shift is further exemplified by Uganda's involvement in Tanzania's Tanga Regional Energy Hub, which will support petroleum storage, refining, logistics, trading, and distribution.

Additionally, there is a potential joint refinery project at Tanga involving Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Meanwhile, Kenya is also considering a refinery at Lamu, which would likely depend on imported crude. The proposed Lamu refinery faces challenges related to crude supply and financing, while Uganda's crude is being directed towards Tanzania through the EACOP pipeline.

This complex energy landscape demonstrates that cooperation and competition are occurring simultaneously in East Africa's oil map, with Kenya and Uganda maintaining economic ties while also developing alternative infrastructure.