‘No doubt’ of climate change role in deadly China-Nepal flood: scientists

Scientists concluded that climate change played a significant role in the recent deadly glacial mountain collapse on the China-Nepal border, which resulted in over 1,400 deaths and at least 6,600 people missing. The disaster was not caused by a singular extreme weather event, but rather a "compound crisis" driven by long-term warming, glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and geological instability.

The report from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group states that rising temperatures have exposed ice and permafrost to higher and longer thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes.

Walter Immerzeel, a mountain hydrologist at Utrecht University and co-author of the report, emphasized that the region is experiencing "fundamental, irreversible shifts" as the glacier retreat and permafrost degradation undermine mountain stability. He explained that while the 2015 earthquake may have weakened the slope, glacier retreat and permafrost fall further destabilized the area.

Nepal, a largely rural nation of 30 million people, contributes a small fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions compared to industrialized nations. The study found that July and August 2026 were the warmest months locally recorded, with heavy snowfall in late 2025 contributing to increased meltwater before the collapse. The 2015 magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Nepal may have further weakened the slope, although its precise role remains uncertain.

The reconstruction bill after the deadly floods is estimated to be $4.78 billion. Prime Minister Balendra Shah will address the UN General Assembly next week to discuss the urgent issue of loss and damage caused by climate change. Nepal's disaster authority revised the number of missing people up to 6,150, with 1,403 bodies retrieved, 105 of which have been identified. In China, the toll is 43 dead and 519 missing, bringing the combined toll from both nations to 1,446 people dead and at least 6,669 missing.