Train carrying Estonian leaders crossed Ukraine border just before Russian drone strike

U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cease targeting Russian oil refineries, claiming that these strikes are exacerbating a global diesel shortage and driving up fuel costs in the United States. During a visit to Ireland, Trump disclosed that he had previously discussed the matter directly with Zelenskyy and urged Ukraine to target alternative objectives inside Russia.

He emphasized that Ukrainian attacks were diminishing Russian diesel supplies and "hurting the world." Trump specifically instructed Zelenskyy, "He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia, let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel." This intervention follows the escalation of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes against Russian oil installations, which Ukraine contends are legitimate military targets due to their role in supplying fuel to Russian forces and generating revenue for the Kremlin.

Ukrainian forces have targeted the Slavyansky refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region and the Saratov refinery, causing damage to both facilities. The strikes have caused disruptions in Russian fuel production, prompting Moscow to tighten export controls. Russia imposed restrictions on diesel exports during the summer as domestic shortages intensified, and reduced refinery output has limited the availability of refined products for international buyers.

Trump dismissed suggestions that the Middle East was primarily responsible for the diesel shortage, asserting that the crisis is driven by the Russia-Ukraine war. His perspective contrasts with the views of energy agencies and industry executives, who attribute the diesel squeeze to concurrent refinery and export capacity losses in Russia and the Gulf.

Global fuel markets have been strained by Iran's conflict and disruptions to Gulf oil flows, while Ukrainian attacks have diminished Russian refinery output. Industry executives have warned that diesel supplies could remain constrained through the northern hemisphere winter, with several million barrels a day of anticipated product supply unavailable from Russia and the Middle East.

The International Energy Agency has cautioned that reduced Gulf flows are exacerbating the global oil supply deficit. The cumulative impact has left refiners outside the affected regions operating intensively, but available processing capacity has struggled to fully compensate for lost exports. Russia remains a significant exporter of refined petroleum products, and prolonged refinery outages can impact markets worldwide, even when crude oil remains accessible.

Traders have responded to the reduced product supply by increasing diesel refining margins, raising costs for import-dependent economies and heightening concerns about persistent fuel constraints despite diversion efforts. Diesel is crucial for freight transport, agriculture, construction, and industrial activity, and rising prices could quickly affect distribution and production costs.

Consequently, higher diesel prices are contributing to inflation worries in the United States ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump's remarks place Washington at odds with a key aspect of Kyiv's strategy to inflict economic and logistical burdens on Russia. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly contended that targeting refineries weakens Moscow's capacity to maintain its military campaign, while Russia has accused Ukraine of attacking civilian energy infrastructure.

The dispute also arises as Russian authorities acknowledge ongoing fuel supply pressures. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged shortages affecting motorists and businesses in certain regions in June and ordered officials to mitigate the impact of Ukrainian attacks on oil installations. Moscow has since adjusted export policy and sought additional fuel supplies as refinery disruptions accumulated.