Beyond the bale: Can Pakistan’s cotton sector be rebuilt from the ground up?

Pakistan’s cotton sector, once the cornerstone of the nation’s economy, now grapples with a severe decline. In 2004, the country produced over 14 million bales of cotton; by 2026, output had plummeted to 4.8 to 5.6 million bales, a staggering 60 to 70 percent drop. This crisis stems from a convergence of factors: dwindling yields, volatile prices, and competition from other crops such as sugarcane and rice.

Over 90 percent of Pakistan's 1.5 million cotton farmers manage less than five hectares, hindering their ability to invest in modern technology and cope with losses. The effectiveness of Bt cotton, the predominant cultivar, has waned, exposing farmers to pests like the pink bollworm. Climate change has exacerbated the situation, with heatwaves, erratic rainfall, and water shortages disproportionately affecting Sindh province.

The crisis also manifests as a social injustice issue, with the International Labour Organisation revealing widespread exploitation in the cotton supply chain, including low wages, insecure work, and limited social protection. Women shoulder much of the labor burden but face barriers to training and decision-making, while child labor remains prevalent.

Several organizations are striving to turn the tide. The Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) promotes sustainable practices in pesticide use, water efficiency, soil health, biodiversity, and fair labor. In Pakistan, the National Rural Support Programme (NRSP) launched a BCI project in Dera Ghazi Khan in March 2025, enrolling 6,000 small cotton farmers, 20 percent of whom are women, across 16,000 acres.

These farmers have received training, soil testing, demonstration plots, and guidance on climate-resilient seeds, bio-pesticides, mulching, and laser levelling. An external audit in early 2026 granted these farmers a Permission to Trade certificate, allowing their cotton to be traded with approved ginners under BCI standards. However, certification alone is insufficient.

Out of the 1.5 million cotton farmers, only 6,000 are part of the project, underscoring the scale of the challenge. Key issues persist, such as seed quality, water scarcity, access to affordable credit, and mechanization. Crucially, finance remains a pivotal missing link. Many smallholders rely on informal lenders and cannot afford the necessary inputs, machinery, or working capital to fully capitalize on training and certification.

Therefore, credit and certification must proceed in tandem. Reviving Pakistan’s cotton sector demands coordinated efforts from the government, agricultural departments, financial institutions, ginners, textile manufacturers, and development organizations. Together, they must address affordable credit, mechanization, climate-smart technologies, improved seed regulation, enhanced water management, and equitable pricing policies.

While the Dera Ghazi Khan project demonstrates the potential of training, farmer field schools, and certification at a pilot scale, the ultimate challenge lies in scaling these interventions to the remaining 1.5 million farmers. Pakistan’s cotton sector is in crisis, but it is not without hope. The passage underscores the need for substantial investment and coordination at the scale warranted by the scale of the crisis.