[Column] A Trump-Kim summit may happen. A deal is another matter
Donald Trump, the US President, seems to recall fondly his negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The matter's importance does not hinge on whether his objective is to distract from Iran negotiations, gain a diplomatic win ahead of midterm elections, or strengthen trade talks with South Korea. Given the stagnation, a change is required.
Since the Hanoi summit in February 2019, North Korea's nuclear capabilities have expanded, and the North-South alliance with Russia has become a cornerstone of Northeast Asia. Trump's second term has added unpredictability to the situation. Trust between the parties is scarce, and the negotiating environment is unfavorable due to factors like Russia's war in Ukraine.
Rekindling dialogue is no simple task. Although North Korea may agree to talks, denuclearization is not the only goal. The US-China coordination challenge is significant, but the main hurdle is the Trump administration's policymaking structure. Achieving political will and establishing a framework for long-term negotiations is crucial.
The administration's lack of internal consensus on dialogue, as evident in its approach to Iran or trade talks with Canada, further complicates matters. Trump's impulsive nature, unilateral actions, and frequent mood swings make him unsuitable for prolonged negotiations. A brief meeting between Trump and Kim may ease tensions, but it's unlikely to produce tangible results.
Pyongyang seeks to be treated as a "normal" country, and its relations with China and Russia give it higher diplomatic standing. The North must weigh its options between stability and unpredictability due to Trump's brinkmanship. The second half of the year could be the last chance to initiate peace talks on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea must continue to create an environment conducive to dialogue, adjust its goals, and establish an efficient framework for negotiations. History shows that preserving peace on the Korean Peninsula requires ongoing efforts.
Written by urgent.news from The Hankyoreh's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
