[Column] A Trump-Kim summit may happen. A deal is another matter

Reports suggest that US President Donald Trump may be inclined to revive negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The possibility of a summit is being considered, but a deal is not guaranteed. Trump's motivations may be varied, such as diverting attention from tense negotiations with Iran, securing a victory before the midterm elections, or boosting his trade talks with South Korea.

Since his second summit with Kim in Hanoi in February 2019, seven years have passed, during which North Korea's nuclear capabilities have significantly advanced, and the Pyongyang-Beijing-Moscow alliance has solidified. This, coupled with President Trump's second term, has made international relations less predictable. Distrust has accumulated over the years, making it challenging to initiate dialogue.

The current environment is unfavorable, with issues such as Russia's war in Ukraine further complicating matters. While North Korea might agree to dialogue, it's a difficult process to navigate. The real challenges lie within the US policymaking structure, particularly the administration's ability to coordinate, manage, and maintain long-term negotiations.

The political will and structured framework required for these talks seem to be lacking. Achieving consensus within the administration is also a significant hurdle. There's also the question of whether Trump can manage the internal consensus needed for negotiations, considering his history of impulsive, unilateral actions and frequent mood changes.

While a meeting between Trump and Kim could potentially ease tensions and pave the way for negotiations, it's unlikely to produce tangible results on its own. The North Korean regime is not an attractive diplomatic counterpart either. Despite the difficulties, maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula requires persistent efforts.