World must navigate 'reality' of 1.5C overshoot, says UN

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has reported that global temperatures are set to surpass the 1.5C threshold, marking a shift in focus from avoiding overshoot to navigating its consequences. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to restrict it to 1.5C. However, the world is expected to exceed the 1.5C mark within years, prompting UNEP to address this head-on for the first time in a dedicated report.

Report co-author Richard Betts emphasized the reality check that the world now has to live with a warmer climate, while still having the potential to limit warming. Debra Roberts, another co-author, stressed the need for policymakers to reconfigure climate governance in response to the changing rules of the game. The report's language alarmed climate campaigners, with Greenpeace International's Jasper Inventor urging not to give up on the 1.5C target. Meanwhile, climate scientist Bill Hare criticized the report for potentially leading to apathy.

Small island nations, which are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, have been vocal in their support for the 1.5C target. The world has already warmed by roughly 1.4C since 1850-1900, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels. Scientists warn that overshooting the 1.5C threshold could lead to more extreme weather and push the planet towards tipping points like the collapse of ice sheets and loss of coral reefs.

UNEP executive director Inger Andersen underscored that there are no good outcomes if we remain above the 1.5C target, emphasizing the need to approach it differently from above. To minimize harm, carbon dioxide removal and deep, rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are essential.