1.5 degree Celsius breach inevitable now, says new UNEP report

A newly released UN report declares that it is now certain that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold from pre-industrial times. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report states there are no viable scientific paths left that would keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even in ideal scenarios, temperatures are projected to rise to at least 1.8 degrees Celsius before declining.

The report marks the first time an authoritative source has acknowledged the inevitability of breaching the 1.5 degree Celsius limit. Most previous reports, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have presented a narrow window of opportunity to keep temperature rise within this limit. While the 1.5 degree Celsius mark itself does not create new climate impacts, it is a symbol that as warming increases, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves, will intensify.

The report emphasizes that crossing the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold signifies the onset of an era where annual average temperatures will consistently exceed this limit. Although scientists refer to these thresholds in terms of long-term trends, individual year anomalies, often caused by events like El Nino, can temporarily surpass these limits.

The UNEP report warns that the world is entering a period of consistently higher temperatures than 1.5 degrees Celsius, even with concerted efforts to reduce emissions. It highlights that even if a return to below 1.5 degrees Celsius is achieved, many regions and communities will experience irreversible losses and altered conditions.