1.5 degree Celsius breach inevitable now, says new UNEP report

A recent report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests that the global temperature threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now inevitable to surpass. The report acknowledges that there are no plausible scientific pathways left to keep temperatures below this limit. While the Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to strive for 1.5 degrees, the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold was already breached in 2024, the warmest year on record, with an average temperature 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.

Monthly averages have exceeded this limit multiple times, particularly between July 2023 and December 2024, with most months being at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the corresponding monthly average of pre-industrial times. However, long-term temperature trends, not individual year aberrations, are considered when referring to these thresholds.

The report warns that the world is entering an era where annual average temperatures will consistently be higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even if efforts to return to below 1.5 degrees Celsius are successful, many nations and communities will still face irreversible losses and permanently altered conditions.