Genghis Khan got lucky with the weather. So did Mark Zuckerberg, says the Pulitzer-winning author of ‘Guns, Germs, and Steel’

Renowned author Jared Diamond, 88, has metal detectors installed at his home to deter hostile anthropologists. During a Zoom interview, he playfully revealed that half of anthropologists help him, while the other half resent his intrusion into their field. Diamond, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author known for his 1997 bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel, has released his final book titled Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings.

The book explores the impact of leaders on history, a subject he has grappled with since childhood, shaped by his family's experiences during Hitler's regime and his wife's loss of relatives during the Holocaust.

Diamond argues that individual leaders significantly influence events but only when accompanied by favorable conditions, such as favorable weather, geography, and industry-specific factors. He cites examples like John Snow's removal of a pump handle in 1854, which established cholera's link to contaminated water, and the careers of CEOs, politicians, and sports coaches.

Despite their influence, Diamond finds that CEOs' impact varies across industries, with the highest influence in companies like computers, perfume and cosmetics, movies, toys, and restaurants, while the lowest in utilities, steel, shipbuilding, and railways.

However, Diamond's most surprising discovery is the role of timing in successful leadership. He found that only two major 20th-century politicians, Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore and Nelson Mandela, voluntarily stepped down, while others remained in power despite public and historical criticism. Diamond attributes this to the conviction that they could make a difference, which made them reluctant to change their stance.

He also highlights how leaders like Genghis Khan benefited from specific historical circumstances, such as the wettest decades in 2,000 years on the Mongolian steppe, which provided grass, livestock, and horses essential for his conquests.