Former Navy intelligence officer reacts to first U.S. strikes in Iran after weeks of relative calm

Iran has stated it will reciprocate if the United States fulfills its commitments under the June interim deal aimed at ending their conflict, despite tensions remaining high following U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of further strikes. Oil prices surged after the first exchange of direct attacks since late July, and following reports of two tankers being fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil supply route that Iran effectively controls by closing it to shipping.

The six-month-long conflict had evolved into an economic standoff before a U.S. attack on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, which Iran retaliated by launching missiles at two U.S. air bases in Jordan overnight. A Fox News reporter quoted Trump as saying on Monday, "We're going to hit them hard... There will be a response," although the president separately told reporters that the renewed strikes did not indicate a return to full-scale war.

Iran still seeks a negotiated end to the war, according to a senior Iranian source quoted by Reuters, who stated that Tehran would deliver a harsh response if attacked again. While neither side appears eager for a return to all-out war, their pledges to respond to further attacks underscore how quickly a conflict fought primarily through sanctions, blockades, and economic pressure could escalate into military action.

Tehran has repeatedly insisted it will only allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz if Washington adheres to the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed in June, but the MOU has largely fallen apart. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized during a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that if the U.S. returns to its commitments under the MOU, Iran will reciprocate.

However, no breakthrough has been achieved, and the heightened tensions this week have reignited concerns about potential oil supply disruptions from the world's largest crude-producing region, with Brent futures increasing by 1.3% on Tuesday. Analyst John Evans noted that the tit-for-tat missile exchanges between the U.S. and Iran validate concerns that even if not a "forever war," this conflict will persist.

Two supertankers carrying Saudi oil were hit by unknown projectiles while transiting through the Strait of Hormuz within minutes of each other on Monday, according to shipping intelligence firms Marisks and Kpler. Since the conflict began in February, thousands have been killed, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, and Washington has increasingly employed economic pressure to compel Iran to cease the blockade and end the conflict.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries engaging with Iran might face U.S. sanctions, with secondary sanctions expected to be imposed weekly to exert pressure on Iran, with an initial focus on banks. Iran's central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, stated on Tuesday that Tehran possessed sufficient foreign currency reserves and could inject up to $2 billion into the foreign exchange market to stabilize market volatility.

His comments aimed to reassure markets following reports of Iran's currency reaching a record low against the dollar and annual inflation reaching 66% in July.