Russia’s shadow war on Europe is widening—NATO still sees no attack coming

NATO declared on August 30, 2026 that it perceives no immediate risk of an attack from Russia, according to Reuters. As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia is intensifying its covert operations throughout Europe, a NATO official stated. The declaration came after a week of alerts from Western nations. Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe has escalated sharply since the full-scale invasion, affecting 34 incidents in 2024, nearly tripling the 12 incidents noted the previous year, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The latter asserts that Western countries have yet to devise an effective response to a campaign that operates below the threshold for a military response.

Russia is simultaneously intensifying its attacks on Ukraine while escalating covert activities in Europe, as per the official. This dual approach is evident, even as Russia faces significant resistance from Ukraine, the official added. NATO remains vigilant and alert to the various threats it faces, but at present, it does not see an imminent threat of attack.

Hybrid acts refer to covert actions such as sabotage, arson, and drone flights that fall short of open warfare. The week saw three events raising the question of whether Russia would strike a NATO country, not just Ukraine. On August 28, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Russia is preparing to escalate both in Ukraine and across the region, with a critical window of seven or eight months.

Days earlier, CIA Director John Ratcliffe had flown to Moscow to meet intelligence counterparts. Two individuals familiar with the meeting told Reuters that Ratcliffe raised the possibility of Russia acting against a NATO state, though the purpose of the visit remained unclear. One source mentioned several topics, including Russia's support for Iran, but US President Donald Trump later dismissed this notion two days later, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attack NATO territory and that Ratcliffe carried no message.