Trita Parsi on why US air strikes strengthened Iran’s hand and failed to trigger a revolt

Trita Parsi, a renowned expert on US-Iranian relations and Iranian foreign policy, weighs in on the implications of President Donald Trump's economic sanctions on Iran. According to Parsi, these sanctions, dubbed "Trump's D-Day," might fail to significantly weaken Iran, or they could provoke a retaliatory escalation from Tehran, but it is highly unlikely that they would lead to Iran's surrender.

Iran, according to Parsi, fears capitulation more than it fears escalation, which has been the pattern so far. This suggests that the sanctions might kick off another cycle of escalating tensions rather than bringing an end to the conflict.

The situation is further complicated by the ongoing tensions between the US and Israel over Iran's activities in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have been issuing conflicting statements, while Iran has been increasing its demands. Due to a lack of trust and the presence of some contentious issues in the talks, it appears that a resolution is unlikely in the near future. The current conflict, while not beneficial to the US, has not provided any advantages to either side, and there is a risk that it could reignite fighting.

The prospect of military conflicts remains, albeit with a higher risk due to the US's dwindling ammunition supply. As the conflict persists, Iran's domestic situation might improve, given Iran's increased leverage and deterrence capability. However, the prolonged conflict could also lead to internal discontent in Iran, potentially weakening the Islamic Republic's hold on power.

The fallout from the war could exacerbate existing issues within the country, potentially leading to greater unrest if the conflict drags on for an extended period.