Superwahljahr 2026: So stehen die Umfragen vor den Landtagswahlen in Ostdeutschland

Three Landtag elections are scheduled in September, with voters choosing representatives in the German eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt, and Berlin. The AfD, a right-wing extremist party, could emerge as the strongest force in the elections. The newspaper Handelsblatt's poll tracker provides updates on the parties' performance in the polls and the potential impact on the distribution of seats in the state parliaments.

The graphics are continuously updated using values from various survey institutes. The question is, how do the polls stand before the three elections in September? In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, the Landtag is to be chosen on September 20th. Two weeks earlier, on September 6th, the election in Saxony-Anhalt takes place. Currently, in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD leads the CDU, behind which the Linkspartei follows.

The SPD is in the median at seven percent above the five-percent hurdle. The Greens, BSW, and FDP must worry about failing to enter the parliament. If several parties fail to enter the parliament, the AfD could achieve over 40 percent for an absolute majority. The following graphic shows two scenarios and the possible distribution of seats in the Landtag based on the polls.

The 5-percent scenario illustrates how the distribution of seats would look if the smaller parties failed to enter. With 43 percent of the seats, the AfD would have 49 percent of the parliament. In Berlin, the Linkspartei leads at 21 percent over the CDU at 19 percent, followed by the AfD at 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent.

It remains completely open who will govern in the Red City Hall and which coalitions will form. The BSW and FDP would fail to make it past the five-percent hurdle according to the polls. Those poll results would lead to the following distribution of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus. It's possible that in Berlin, a government formed by three parties might be needed to obtain a majority.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD currently leads the SPD by a significant margin. Behind it follow the CDU and the Linkspartei. The BSW is currently lagging at five percent, and the Greens would fail to reach the five-percent hurdle. Based on these polls, the following distribution of seats would result. This year, elections have already been held in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the CDU was the strongest force with 31 percent in front of the SPD at 25.9 percent. The CDU leader Gordon Schneider now leads the coalition together with the Social Democrats. The AfD came in third with 19.5 percent behind the Greens. The Linkspartei, the Free Voters, and the FDP failed to enter the Landtag.

In the Baden-Württemberg Landtag election on March 8th, the Greens and their leader Cem Özdemir still lagged significantly behind: In mid-October, a survey showed a 14-percent lead for the CDU, but a survey the Thursday before the election showed both parties were neck and neck. After the election, the Greens and CDU formed a government, with Özdemir being elected as Minister-President.

More: "Mistakes will not be forgotten in the digital space" – Candidates fight for their reputation This article was published on February 18th, 2026. The article was extensively updated on August 28th, 2026.