Superwahljahr 2026: So stehen die Umfragen vor den Landtagswahlen in Ostdeutschland

In the Superwahljahr 2026, three Landtag elections are scheduled for September, taking place in the German states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt, and Berlin. The AfD is expected to be the strongest party in these elections, potentially becoming the most powerful force in the region. The Handelsblatt's Umfragetracker provides an update on the current stance of the parties ahead of the 2026 Landtag elections.

The tool displays how each party is currently performing in the polls and what this would mean for the distribution of seats in the state parliaments. The graphs are continuously updated and based on the values of all survey institutions. The data is collected by the Handelsblatt from the Dawum platform.

The question arises: how do the polls stand before the three Landtag elections in September? In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, the Landtag parliament will be elected on September 20, while in Saxony-Anhalt, the election will occur two weeks earlier on September 6. Currently, the AfD leads in the polls for both elections, followed by the CDU, SPD, Grüne, BSW, and FDP.

These smaller parties must worry about failing to cross the 5 percent threshold for entry into the parliament. Should more than one of these four parties miss the entry, the AfD could achieve a result of over 40 percent, securing a majority and potentially governing alone.

The following graphic illustrates, in two scenarios, what the poll numbers could mean for the distribution of seats in the Landtag. The 5 percent scenario shows the distribution of seats if the smaller parties do not enter. Instead of securing 42 percent of the seats, the AfD would then hold 54 percent of the parliament and could govern independently.

In Berlin, the median shows the SPD with 21 percent, followed by the CDU with 19 percent. Behind them are the AfD (18 percent) and the Greens (16 percent). It remains entirely uncertain who will govern in the future and which coalitions will form in the Berlin city hall. The BSW and FDP are expected to fail to cross the 5 percent threshold according to the polls.

The outcome of these survey results would lead to a distribution of seats in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus that may require a coalition of three parties to achieve a majority.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD currently leads far ahead of the SPD. Following that, the CDU and the SPD are expected to perform respectively. The BSW is currently trending at five percent, while the Greens would be expected to miss the 5 percent threshold. Based on these poll results, the distribution of seats in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus would likely require a coalition of three parties to achieve a majority.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD is currently far ahead of the SPD. Two weeks earlier, on September 6, there will be elections in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD is leading in the polls, followed by the CDU, SPD, Grüne, BSW, and FDP. The upcoming Landtag elections in Baden-Württemberg on March 8 will see the CDU leading with 31 percent, followed by the SPD (25.9 percent).

The AfD will be third with 19.5 percent, followed by the Greens. The Linkspartei, Freie Wähler, and FDP will fail to cross the threshold for entry into the Landtag.