Iceland holds knife-edge referendum on EU membership talks

On Saturday, Iceland will hold a national referendum to determine whether to restart negotiations for EU membership. The Nordic country has long debated the prospect of becoming the EU's 28th member. The left-leaning Icelandic government, elected in 2024, decided to hold the vote earlier due to heightened geopolitical tensions following Russia's war in Ukraine and concerns over Greenland's potential transfer from Denmark.

Voters will answer a simple yes/no question regarding the resumption of accession talks with the European Union.

The question echoes a previous attempt at EU membership in 2009, which was later abandoned. A recent Gallup poll suggests a narrow majority of Icelanders oppose reopening negotiations, while other recent polls show a slight lead for those in favor. Iceland, with a population of approximately 400,000, has been closely integrated with the EU through its membership in the European Economic Area and Schengen Area. Around 265,000 eligible voters will participate in the referendum.

Geopolitical concerns, particularly the threat from Russia and US President Donald Trump's intentions towards Greenland, have increased public unease about potential EU membership. Icelanders, who gained independence from Denmark in 1944, are questioning whether they might become the next target of geopolitical competition. The left-leaning coalition government believes EU membership could bolster Iceland's security and prosperity in the face of the weakening international order.

The main hurdle in restarting negotiations is Iceland's reluctance to open its fishing waters to EU trawlers, a condition imposed by Brussels. However, the government has indicated it may seek an opt-out from this requirement. Some economists suggest that EU membership could provide financial benefits and potentially lead to the adoption of the euro. National identity and concerns over sovereignty are also strong motivating factors against EU membership.

A "yes" vote would initiate accession talks with the EU's executive branch, the European Commission, covering 35 areas such as the economy and human rights. The process could begin by the end of the year and last between 18 to 24 months.