Unicaja y Sabadell, los bancos más expuestos en una guerra de depósitos

JPMorgan and UBS warn of pressure in the deposit market, with Bankinter and CaixaBank having slightly superior protection, while BBVA and Santander may view the battle from the sidelines. Deposits have returned to the forefront, with investors' biggest fear being a deposit war, according to the Wall Street giant. UBS has detected increased competitive pressure to attract money through this method.

Unicaja and Sabadell are the most exposed to this pressure, as their profits would be more adversely affected if deposit rates rise. Bankinter and CaixaBank have slightly superior protection, while BBVA and Santander can watch the battle from the sidelines if Spain alone joins the move, as the impact would be greater in case of a global escalation.

Although the entities deny any inclination to speed up, several investment banks have started questioning the sector's immunity to an increase in rates. UBS states concerns about the evolution of deposit costs and margins in its report, calling for banks to exercise pricing discipline. Analysts at the Swiss entity agree with the main argument banks use to dismiss concerns: liquidity is not likely to trigger a fight over deposits, but it could happen through business reasons.

Digital banking offers have been under scrutiny by the market, and not just Bankinter. Nominations also add popularity. The excess of deposits and the strong relationships with Spain's faithful customers constitute solid lines of defense, says JPMorgan. Intensified competition in the deposit arena is a growing cause for concern.

No bank is immune, warns UBS. A significant layer of protection comes from low remunerated deposit rates across Spanish banks. CaixaBank remunerates only 26% of its total volume, close to Unicaja's 27%. Santander Spain stands at 29%; and BBVA at 31%, according to UBS data. From there, the percentages rise. Sabadell reaches 36% and Bankinter leads the group of listed banks with a 42% payout rate.

Deposit rates have been rising over the past years, and the fear is that they will rise further. UBS calculated that a one-percentage-point increase in rates would reduce the profit per share by 1% to 2% the following year, depending on the customer base profile. Unicaja is the most affected, with a 1.7% profit decrease for that extra percentage point (and so on for each additional decline), followed by Sabadell, with 1.6%.

Bankinter would see a 1.2% and CaixaBank, a 1.1%. With only 30% of Santander and BBVA's profit concentrated in Spain, their cuts would be 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. UBS acknowledges that the drop is not dramatic, but warns that the impact could worsen if deposit composition changes accelerate.